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Post by Admin on Dec 31, 2023 13:55:17 GMT -5
You don't need to be a brain surgeon to forecast a good year for bonds + stocks as I did for 2023. The easy popular US bond index BND made 5.7% in 2023. Others made much more with lower SD. We also know that the Fed controls the ST but markets control the LT and markets very loudly made their point since the Fed blinked on Nov 1st and bonds have had a huge run relative to bond performance. The 10 year treasury chart shows that its rate collapsed very quickly from about 5% to 3.8-9% last week. See ( stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24tnx). This rapid decline makes me uneasy, I'm still holding my HY Munis + Multi, but I'm dancing very close near the exit. After a huge decline, there is a chance of climbing back some and eventually going down again when the Fed starts cutting. On the other hand, markets are much faster than the Fed. We can see that the Fed fund rate is still high at 5.25-50 and the first cut of 0.25 will be in March 2024 ( www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) and why Schwab SNAXX(Min 1 million) is paying 5.43% which is great for someone like me who can be out and not miss a lot. The best MM "sub" is RPHIX(yes, I know, it's not a MM fund). There is a very good chance RPHIX will do better than MM, especially when the Fed rate will be cut. The next level: Funds with (SD < 4) + (YTD > 5%) + (3 year > 2%)...see attachment below. There are a couple of more that I keep to myself, all with low SD.
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Post by OutOnBond on Jan 2, 2024 11:50:47 GMT -5
FD1000 - Thanks for sharing the nice list of low volatility funds. I own several of these and will research more of these interesting funds.
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Post by chahta on Jan 3, 2024 8:29:52 GMT -5
CBLDX duration is 1.65 yr. and SEC yield is 8.65%. RSIIX duration is1.94yr. and SEC yield is 9.20%.
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Post by Admin on Jan 3, 2024 9:54:36 GMT -5
Yesterday I sold everything. I didn't like what I have seen. Rates go up, VIX jumped, during the day HY munis indexes were down 0.6-0.8, but at close they were flat. As usual, first I sell, then I watch when to go back. Schwab SNAXX pays 5.42, an easy and nice place to collect very safe money.
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Post by doubletrouble on Jan 5, 2024 8:24:25 GMT -5
Yesterday I sold everything. I didn't like what I have seen. Rates go up, VIX jumped, during the day HY munis indexes were down 0.6-0.8, but at close they were flat. As usual, first I sell, then I watch when to go back. Schwab SNAXX pays 5.42, an easy and nice place to collect very safe money. Admin, thanks for your update. I see the VIX and rates. Where did you find that high yield muni indexes were down 0.6 - 0.8 during the day?
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Post by Admin on Jan 5, 2024 17:14:19 GMT -5
I watch a list of many securities and indexes during the day. HYD=HY munis. On January 2nd it was down during the day, see ( finance.yahoo.com/quote/HYD/history?p=HYD). BTW, I nailed it again..." Rates go up"...another "lucky" observation. Attachments:
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Post by Admin on Jan 6, 2024 0:15:04 GMT -5
Observations 1) FPFIX,RCTIX were supposed to be lower SD funds, rates were up and both lost -0.4% in one week. 2) SEMMX was supposed to be riskier, it made +0.3% 3) PIMIX which is held by many lost -0.75. I posted many times in the last several years that I prefer RCTIX over PIMIX. RCTIX made 3 times more than PIMIX in the last 3 years with lower volatility ( schrts.co/VsapQEQH). As usual, many don't listen. I held PIMIX in its glory days 2010-2011 to 01/2018 at a huge % (over 50%) and never owned it longer term since 01/2018 (maybe I had 1-2 very ST trades in 2018). 4) HY Munis did a lot better than higher-rated funds. ORNAX lost -0.2, but GIBLX lost -1% and DODIX lost -1.1%. HY Muni PRIHX (T row) has a good risk/reward. What is perceived to be "safer" isn't. That can be longer-term (=months) too. So far my ST T/A doesn't have a sell signal for many bond OEFs. Shortly, a good chance I will go in since my 2 favorite funds that I owned for months made money last week.
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Post by dtconroe on Jan 6, 2024 12:24:04 GMT -5
Observations 1) FPFIX,RCTIX were supposed to be lower SD funds, rates were up and both lost -0.4% in one week. 2) SEMMX was supposed to be riskier, it made +0.3% 3) PIMIX which is held by many lost -0.75. I posted many times in the last several years that I prefer RCTIX over PIMIX. RCTIX made 3 times more than PIMIX in the last 3 years with lower volatility ( schrts.co/VsapQEQH). As usual, many don't listen. I held PIMIX in its glory days 2010-2011 to 01/2018 at a huge % (over 50%) and never owned it longer term since 01/2018 (maybe I had 1-2 very ST trades in 2018). 4) HY Munis did a lot better than higher-rated funds. ORNAX lost -0.2, but GIBLX lost -1% and DODIX lost -1.1%. HY Muni PRIHX (T row) has a good risk/reward. What is perceived to be "safer" isn't. That can be longer-term (=months) too. So far my ST T/A doesn't have a sell signal for many bond OEFs. Shortly, a good chance I will go in since my 2 favorite funds that I owned for months made money last week. Standard deviation is calculated using "monthly" fund returns, over a 36 month period (about 156 weeks), in comparison to the "monthly" returns of other funds in that fund's category. I would not be quoting the most recent one week performance results, and making sweeping statements about "safety", or a reason to invest, or not invest, in that fund. From my investing perspective, that is very dangerous.
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Post by Admin on Jan 6, 2024 18:13:29 GMT -5
DT, you are correct, monthly SD isn't accurate, and why I look at daily charts. I also know from experience that funds behave differently in various markets. This is where I make most of my money.Funds with low SD (or extremely low SD) usually will not have great performance if you hold them for years. SEMMX can lose a lot in bad markets but can have lower SD than many other funds in other markets and do great like it did in 2023. How many funds, especially Multi, made 12.7% with that low SD=4.3). See www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=1y525OJM1H4XYkPusHSWv8HY Munis (ORNAX) lost money in 3 years, for me it was great. FPFIX has been one of the lowest SD funds but lost -0.4% last week, for me it's a small warning sign. As usual, no guarantees and no recommendations, just my thoughts. Posters should always do DD and follow their style.
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Post by Admin on Jan 15, 2024 11:07:54 GMT -5
Looks like bond funds start doing better in the second week of January. I sold very early in 2024 and was back to 99+% in the early second week. This is exactly the pattern I'm looking for. When I'm "wrong", I'm only days out and hardly miss anything. When I'm right, I avoid the big losses.
Several funds, and especially MBS already show their momo YTD from low SD to higher and YTD > 0.4%: DHEAX+BDKAX 0.5%...HOBIX+ICMUX 0.6%...SEMMX 0.9%
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Post by OutOnBond on Jan 15, 2024 18:45:36 GMT -5
Nice assessment of funds holding MBS. What do think about AGIVX?
In the bank loan sector, RSFLX has some momo, any thoughts on this fund?
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Post by Admin on Jan 15, 2024 19:57:54 GMT -5
RSFLX does have a momo, but it's not within my other go-to BL funds FAFRX+EIFAX, see chart( schrts.co/scFCkMwx) AGIVX is another notrad fund with a high % in securitized + nice momo. I would go with SEMMX instead ( schrts.co/pPSDqvxG) Never heard of both. For a list of the best momo bond funds for YTD look at this ( link).
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Post by Admin on Jan 16, 2024 9:46:25 GMT -5
From my fund manager Quote: Market Commentary:The “rates-are-going-lower” narrative seems to be fully entrenched. The market reaction to the CPI release on Thursday supports this notion. Core CPI YoY increased 3.5% (0.2% higher than consensus expectations) and headline CPI YoY registered a 3.9% print, which was also higher than survey estimates. It appears that headline CPI bottomed out in June of last year at 3%. Nevertheless, after a brief spike in yields, treasuries rallied and the market is now pricing 7 rate cuts by the Fed over the next twelve months.
We are incredibly skeptical that this scenario unfolds. If CPI continues to matriculate lower we agree that the Fed could begin the process of “normalization” but to us that means 2 or 3 rate cuts by the end of the year – much aligned with what the Federal Reserve is currently projecting. And there is still the risk, in our opinion, that inflation re-accelerates – in which case, not only are rate cuts potentially off the table, but the Fed may not be done hiking.
A year from now, if the Fed has actually cut rates by 175 bps, as the fixed income market is projecting, we believe it will not be because inflation is below their 2% target, but instead it will be a result of difficulties financing the Federal government deficit. Many are projecting the U.S. Treasury to run a deficit of over $2 Trillion in 2024 – this is a huge number considering we are in the midst of an expansion. Moreover, there are $8.2 Trillion worth of Treasuries maturing in 2024. Will they be able to roll that over without a hiccup? We have mentioned before that the drawdown in the Reverse Repo facility (mostly accessed by Money Market funds) has been providing demand for T-Bills – and, the Treasury, realizing this has shifted most of their issuance to the short-end of the curve. But what happens when the Reverse Repo facility is fully drawn down, which may occur by March/April? We think the lack of demand at auction will put upward pressure on shorter term rates. In response, the Treasury may shift strategy and issue debt on the long-end of the curve. Either way, we believe the supply/demand imbalance is likely to push rates higher. Absent yield curve control (shifting from QT to QE) the Fed could possibly cut more aggressively in response. And cutting rates in a 3% plus environment will not be received well by the long-end of the curve – in our opinion.
As usual, I don't care about managers' opinions, just what the funds actually do, and this fund did very well with a very low SD in 2023. What is a low SD? the fund made over 9% didn't lose more than 0.5% since April 2023.
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Post by Admin on Jan 17, 2024 9:59:27 GMT -5
Yesterday was a good test for bonds, most funds lost money, and I made 0.1%. The following are several funds with lower SD than most where you can hide. A one month show their volatility from low to high; RPHIX, CBUDX, CBLDX, RSIIX, DHEAX. Attachments:
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Post by Admin on Jan 17, 2024 13:12:59 GMT -5
I have been teaching my wife my system and OMG, while showing her what I do, I found another great fund, so now I invested in 2 and one waits on the side, just in case. What is a great fund for me? a fund with a potential of making at least 7-8% this year, didn't lose more than 0.5% in the last several months + a nice yield which is above 6% in current markets, regardless of what rates would do. Basically, my idea is to have a nice easy, low SD with good performance, and disregard what happened 1-2 years ago.
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Post by Admin on Jan 20, 2024 9:50:48 GMT -5
Rates were up last week = not so good for many funds. 1) HY munis got destroyed last week losing -1.2 to -1.5%. Higher-rated funds lost above 1%. 2) Most Multi lost too: PIMIX -0.7%, RCTIX still lost 0.5%. 3) As I posted before there are bond funds you can hide in. 4) FPFIX, the low SD fund, continues to falter and lost 0.4% 5) I have noticed for a couple of years now that FAFRX is different than other bank loans and last week it jumped 1.3% 6) The 3 funds I like did nicely.
Read what I said on Jan 3rd where I sold everything and I had a huge % in HY Munis. The market gave me all the signals I needed. It didn't show up in the daily prices of HY munis, but several days later it did. This is why I love bond funds, if you pay attention, it gives you 2-5 days to get out, it doesn't exist in stocks.
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Post by bridgebuilder on Jan 20, 2024 10:27:19 GMT -5
FD Great call. Thanks for sharing..
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Post by linter on Jan 27, 2024 16:41:19 GMT -5
thanks much for the link at MFO that brought me here. i was the one asking about JAAA. i do hold a few of the funds mentioned above plus one that shall not be named. hope you continue to post your thoughts here. they have always been more than helpful.
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Post by Admin on Jan 28, 2024 10:39:57 GMT -5
thanks much for the link at MFO that brought me here. i was the one asking about JAAA. i do hold a few of the funds mentioned above plus one that shall not be named. hope you continue to post your thoughts here. they have always been more than helpful. Absolutely. The idea here is to post whatever you want to get better performance and lower risk/SD. I'm a bond trader, if you want to learn what/how I do it, you can read about it at fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/25/putting-all. If it helps you, great. If you don't care, disregard it. I don't reveal what I own and my trades, but sometimes you get hints. There are several reasons for that. I trade based on my system and I'm going to spend time explaining every move. It may be a short trade = days, mostly it's weeks-months. Generally, I prefer my fund to stay very small, since managers can do a lot better with less money. Another reason is the fact that several trolls have been making sarcastic comments for years. Hint: I can't buy the following fund at any account anymore after I sold it in several months, the fund blocked me. The only time in the past was DHEAX. The fund is RCRIX. M* classified it as bank loans = mistake. The Fund intends to invest primarily in commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) with the below characteristics. Currently, the Fund has no exposure to office, retail or hotel assets and owns a portfolio of high-quality CMBS that are at discounted purchase prices with the expectation that they will return to par. More info at www.riverparkfunds.com/assets/pdfs/rpfrcf/RiverPark_Floating_Rate_CMBS_Fund_Fact_Sheet.pdfSee dist below. At about 0.06 dist per month, it equals about 8% per year. See one month performance vs RSIIX, JAAA As usual, I don't care too much about how it did in all its history. I do care how to make money now. Please do not mention this fund on any other site. Attachments:
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Post by linter on Jan 28, 2024 16:36:17 GMT -5
mum's the word on that fund. looks very nice and steady. i've already got another contender in the MBS area but it's a good bit more volatile. yield on the one you mention is nice but i sure wish i could find something that'd make me happier in a taxable account. there's always something. anyway, thanks for the input. very helpful to the cause!
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Post by Admin on Jan 31, 2024 15:23:07 GMT -5
So far I see a pop in HY Munis. My ST (3 line break) indicator was already signaled days ago, depending on which fund you used. Remember, ETF that trade during the day may have faster signals. ORNAX signaled yesterday ( schrts.co/GtnrRris) HYD signaled 3 days earlier ( schrts.co/Bdrzvjfu)
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Post by linter on Feb 1, 2024 8:20:08 GMT -5
So far I see a pop in HY Munis. My ST (3 line break) indicator was already signaled days ago, depending on which fund you used. Remember, ETF that trade during the day may have faster signals. ORNAX signaled yesterday ( schrts.co/GtnrRris) HYD signaled 3 days earlier ( schrts.co/Bdrzvjfu) Yes, indeed, and thanks for the alert. OTOH, I've come around to your way of thinking re the lower the SD, the better I sleep at night, especially after getting burned a few times recently in muni funds. (can anyone say ... recency bias?). ORNAX has an SD of 11, a little too rich for me. The only two that are in my ballpark: NVHAX (5.38) and ISHAX (5.25). but that bias thing will probably keep me out of them, too, for better or worse.
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Post by Admin on Feb 2, 2024 23:04:15 GMT -5
I bought HY Muni and sold it today. Why? because rates changed direction dramatically today. I rather make some money, I don't care how much, and ask questions later.
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Post by linter on Feb 3, 2024 8:31:50 GMT -5
If the flip-flop holds, that'll be one of the speedier recent whipsaws. glad i didn't get FOMOd into it. bonds other than munis got hit today too. hopefully, they reverse course back to the good next week.
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Post by Admin on Feb 3, 2024 8:51:01 GMT -5
If the flip-flop holds, that'll be one of the speedier recent whipsaws. glad i didn't get FOMOd into it. bonds other than munis got hit today too. hopefully, they reverse course back to the good next week. Yep, I can be in a trade for months or days. It's already been about 2 years that HY munis can't sustain a steady uptrend = not losing more than 1%, for more than several day-weeks, but my other funds do.
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Post by linter on Feb 3, 2024 9:13:28 GMT -5
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Post by Admin on Feb 5, 2024 10:16:46 GMT -5
From my fund manager "The Macro-economic data has been one-sided for the last couple of weeks – and it is pointing towards stronger economic growth than expected. Q4 GDP came in well above forecast last week, as did durable goods and consumer spending. This week corroborated that trend with Friday’s non-farm payroll report. The economy added 353 thousand jobs in January – well above the 185 thousand expected by economists. Furthermore, December’s report was revised upward to 333 thousand jobs – meaning we just had back-toback 300k+ months for the first time since January of 2023. Average hourly earnings increased 0.6% in January – twice the survey expectations. Annualized that is 7.2% wage growth. As we have previously alluded, wage growth is the engine for sustained inflation and a reflection of a labor demand/supply imbalance. We believe we have a labor supply shortage that is secular in nature. The unemployment rate remains subdued at 3.7%, initial jobless claims have remained at 50-year lows, and the Atlanta Fed estimate for Q1 GDP growth is currently 4.2%. Still, the fixed income market is pricing in five and half rate cuts over the next year. Granted, this is down from seven just a few weeks ago but still overly exuberant in our view. The disinflation over the past year has been concentrated in the goods portions of the data series, while service sector inflation has remained relatively buoyant. The market expects owner equivalent rents to start to fall as well, and we would agree. For this reason, we believe the Fed will be able to slowly start the process of normalizing short-term rates. And to us, that means two-to-three rate cuts in the back half of the year. Even that will depend on inflation falling further, so there is a risk that the Fed can act less. Further jobs data like Friday’s would increase this risk.
At 10 AM, ISM jumped more than expected and why rates are higher than the high they opened this morning.
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Post by Admin on Feb 14, 2024 10:56:19 GMT -5
Nothing new if you follow my posts here and in other places. MM is still doing well, Schwab MM, SNAXX, pays 5.37% My best idea, RPHIX="sub" cash made YTD=0.7%. I have been posting about it since 2022. The next level of risk is CBLDX,RSIIX are at YTD=1% 1.2%, been posting about since 2023. TFLO = treasuries floating rate looks pretty good lately, paying over 5% and close to RPHIX. Easy to trade with high liquidity. FPFIX,RCTIX are supposed to have lower risk but YTD at -(0.2%). SEMMX="risky" has been on a tear with YTD=2.5% but is -0.5% from its last top. PIMIX, the fund I love to hate since 01/2018 is at -0.9% YTD. High-rated bond funds continue to stink, and a good chance to lose more after today's close. VGIT=-1.8 DODIX=-2.1% As always, follow the charts and uptrend, you don't need to know more than that. The bird in the hand from "safer" to less, MM, RPHIX, CBLDX, RSIIX are pretty safe to hold in 2024 and can make you 6-8% in 2024, just select your risk/return. My bond funds have done better than RSIIX. Actually, I made money yesterday. Attachments:
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Post by Admin on Mar 13, 2024 15:38:13 GMT -5
It's about about a month since my last post. RSIIX continues to be a great easy, los SD to hold and so far made about 1% per month. In my book, it's a Madoff style one. When I find a great one, I load, why diversify with worse funds? FAFRX is another one that excel for a couple years in the bank loan category and YTD=2.8%. NVHAX with lower SD in its category, is at 3% YTD. Basically, for 2+ months I'm in just 2 bond funds with low SD and a nice uptrend and would be very happy with 8-9% for 2024, so far it looks better based on YTD.
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Post by linter on Mar 14, 2024 8:42:47 GMT -5
It's about about a month since my last post. RSIIX continues to be a great easy, los SD to hold and so far made about 1% per month. In my book, it's a Madoff style one. When I find a great one, I load, why diversify with worse funds? FAFRX is another one that excel for a couple years in the bank loan category and YTD=2.8%. NVHAX with lower SD in its category, is at 3% YTD. Basically, for 2+ months I'm in just 2 bond funds with low SD and a nice uptrend and would be very happy with 8-9% for 2024, so far it looks better based on YTD. thanks much for the update!
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