2024-Bond-OEFs

CBLDX duration is 1.65 yr. and SEC yield is 8.65%.
RSIIX duration is1.94yr. and SEC yield is 9.20%.

Admin, thanks for your update. I see the VIX and rates. Where did you find that high yield muni indexes were down 0.6 - 0.8 during the day?

Observations
1) FPFIX,RCTIX were supposed to be lower SD funds, rates were up and both lost -0.4% in one week.
2) SEMMX was supposed to be riskier, it made +0.3%
3) PIMIX which is held by many lost -0.75. I posted many times in the last several years that I prefer RCTIX over PIMIX. RCTIX made 3 times more than PIMIX in the last 3 years with lower volatility (schrts.co/VsapQEQH). As usual, many don't listen. I held PIMIX in its glory days 2010-2011 to 01/2018 at a huge % (over 50%) and never owned it longer term since 01/2018 (maybe I had 1-2 very ST trades in 2018).
4) HY Munis did a lot better than higher-rated funds. ORNAX lost -0.2, but GIBLX lost -1% and DODIX lost -1.1%. HY Muni PRIHX (T row) has a good risk/reward.

What is perceived to be "safer" isn't. That can be longer-term (=months) too. So far my ST T/A doesn't have a sell signal for many bond OEFs. Shortly, a good chance I will go in since my 2 favorite funds that I owned for months made money last week.

DT, you are correct, monthly SD isn't accurate, and why I look at daily charts. I also know from experience that funds behave differently in various markets.
This is where I make most of my money.
Funds with low SD (or extremely low SD) usually will not have great performance if you hold them for years.

SEMMX can lose a lot in bad markets but can have lower SD than many other funds in other markets and do great like it did in 2023. How many funds, especially Multi, made 12.7% with that low SD=4.3). See www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=1y525OJM1H4XYkPusHSWv8
HY Munis (ORNAX) lost money in 3 years, for me it was great.

FPFIX has been one of the lowest SD funds but lost -0.4% last week, for me it's a small warning sign.

As usual, no guarantees and no recommendations, just my thoughts. Posters should always do DD and follow their style.

Nice assessment of funds holding MBS. What do think about AGIVX?

In the bank loan sector, RSFLX has some momo, any thoughts on this fund?

From my fund manager
Quote:
Market Commentary:The “rates-are-going-lower” narrative seems to be fully entrenched. The market reaction to the CPI release on Thursday supports this notion. Core CPI YoY increased 3.5% (0.2% higher than consensus expectations) and headline CPI YoY registered a 3.9% print, which was also higher than survey estimates. It appears that headline CPI bottomed out in June of last year at 3%. Nevertheless, after a brief spike in yields, treasuries rallied and the market is now pricing 7 rate cuts by the Fed over the next twelve months.

We are incredibly skeptical that this scenario unfolds. If CPI continues to matriculate lower we agree that the Fed could begin the process of “normalization” but to us that means 2 or 3 rate cuts by the end of the year – much aligned with what the Federal Reserve is currently projecting. And there is still the risk, in our opinion, that inflation re-accelerates – in which case, not only are rate cuts potentially off the table, but the Fed may not be done hiking.

A year from now, if the Fed has actually cut rates by 175 bps, as the fixed income market is projecting, we believe it will not be because inflation is below their 2% target, but instead it will be a result of difficulties financing the Federal government deficit. Many are projecting the U.S. Treasury to run a deficit of over $2 Trillion in 2024 – this is a huge number considering we are in the midst of an expansion. Moreover, there are $8.2 Trillion worth of Treasuries maturing in 2024. Will they be able to roll that over without a hiccup? We have mentioned before that the drawdown in the Reverse Repo facility (mostly accessed by Money Market funds) has been providing demand for T-Bills – and, the Treasury, realizing this has shifted most of their issuance to the short-end of the curve. But what happens when the Reverse Repo facility is fully drawn down, which may occur by March/April? We think the lack of demand at auction will put upward pressure on shorter term rates. In response, the Treasury may shift strategy and issue debt on the long-end of the curve. Either way, we believe the supply/demand imbalance is likely to push rates higher. Absent yield curve control (shifting from QT to QE) the Fed could possibly cut more aggressively in response. And cutting rates in a 3% plus environment will not be received well by the long-end of the curve – in our opinion.

As usual, I don't care about managers' opinions, just what the funds actually do, and this fund did very well with a very low SD in 2023. What is a low SD? the fund made over 9% didn't lose more than 0.5% since April 2023.

I have been teaching my wife my system and OMG, while showing her what I do, I found another great fund, so now I invested in 2 and one waits on the side, just in case. What is a great fund for me? a fund with a potential of making at least 7-8% this year, didn't lose more than 0.5% in the last several months + a nice yield which is above 6% in current markets, regardless of what rates would do. Basically, my idea is to have a nice easy, low SD with good performance, and disregard what happened 1-2 years ago.

FD Great call. Thanks for sharing..

Absolutely. The idea here is to post whatever you want to get better performance and lower risk/SD.
I'm a bond trader, if you want to learn what/how I do it, you can read about it at fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/25/putting-all. If it helps you, great. If you don't care, disregard it.

I don't reveal what I own and my trades, but sometimes you get hints. There are several reasons for that. I trade based on my system and I'm going to spend time explaining every move. It may be a short trade = days, mostly it's weeks-months. Generally, I prefer my fund to stay very small, since managers can do a lot better with less money. Another reason is the fact that several trolls have been making sarcastic comments for years.

Hint: I can't buy the following fund at any account anymore after I sold it in several months, the fund blocked me. The only time in the past was DHEAX. The fund is RCRIX. M* classified it as bank loans = mistake. The Fund intends to invest primarily in commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) with the below characteristics. Currently, the Fund has no exposure to office, retail or hotel assets and owns a portfolio of high-quality CMBS that are at discounted purchase prices with the expectation that they will return to par. More info at www.riverparkfunds.com/assets/pdfs/rpfrcf/RiverPark_Floating_Rate_CMBS_Fund_Fact_Sheet.pdf
See dist below. At about 0.06 dist per month, it equals about 8% per year. See one month performance vs RSIIX, JAAA

As usual, I don't care too much about how it did in all its history. I do care how to make money now.
Please do not mention this fund on any other site.

So far I see a pop in HY Munis. My ST (3 line break) indicator was already signaled days ago, depending on which fund you used.
Remember, ETF that trade during the day may have faster signals.
ORNAX signaled yesterday (schrts.co/GtnrRris)
HYD signaled 3 days earlier (schrts.co/Bdrzvjfu)

I bought HY Muni and sold it today. Why? because rates changed direction dramatically today. I rather make some money, I don't care how much, and ask questions later.

Yep, I can be in a trade for months or days. It's already been about 2 years that HY munis can't sustain a steady uptrend = not losing more than 1%, for more than several day-weeks, but my other funds do.

From my fund manager "The Macro-economic data has been one-sided for the last
couple of weeks – and it is pointing towards stronger
economic growth than expected. Q4 GDP came in well above
forecast last week, as did durable goods and consumer
spending. This week corroborated that trend with Friday’s
non-farm payroll report. The economy added 353 thousand
jobs in January – well above the 185 thousand expected by
economists. Furthermore, December’s report was revised
upward to 333 thousand jobs – meaning we just had back-toback 300k+ months for the first time since January of 2023.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.6% in January – twice
the survey expectations. Annualized that is 7.2% wage
growth. As we have previously alluded, wage growth is the
engine for sustained inflation and a reflection of a labor
demand/supply imbalance. We believe we have a labor
supply shortage that is secular in nature. The
unemployment rate remains subdued at 3.7%, initial jobless
claims have remained at 50-year lows, and the Atlanta Fed
estimate for Q1 GDP growth is currently 4.2%. Still, the
fixed income market is pricing in five and half rate cuts over
the next year. Granted, this is down from seven just a few
weeks ago but still overly exuberant in our view.
The disinflation over the past year has been concentrated in
the goods portions of the data series, while service sector
inflation has remained relatively buoyant. The market
expects owner equivalent rents to start to fall as well, and
we would agree. For this reason, we believe the Fed will be
able to slowly start the process of normalizing short-term
rates. And to us, that means two-to-three rate cuts in the
back half of the year. Even that will depend on inflation
falling further, so there is a risk that the Fed can act less.
Further jobs data like Friday’s would increase this risk.

At 10 AM, ISM jumped more than expected and why rates are higher than the high they opened this morning.

It's about about a month since my last post.
RSIIX continues to be a great easy, los SD to hold and so far made about 1% per month. In my book, it's a Madoff style one. When I find a great one, I load, why diversify with worse funds?
FAFRX is another one that excel for a couple years in the bank loan category and YTD=2.8%.
NVHAX with lower SD in its category, is at 3% YTD.
Basically, for 2+ months I'm in just 2 bond funds with low SD and a nice uptrend and would be very happy with 8-9% for 2024, so far it looks better based on YTD.