Post by Admin on Feb 7, 2023 11:30:08 GMT -5
My generic system that I have used until 2013 and how to select/change funds is at (fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/2/generic-ideas). I started in 1995 and made my first million by 2013 in 18 years.
Since 2013, I added the following, see the next 2 links
How to time the market based on the big picture (fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/21/time-market-based-big-picture)
Why and how I use technical analysis (fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/24/why-use-technical-analysis)
Lastly, did the above really work? It did very well, see the evidence (fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/3/portfolio-performance-over-years)
Basically, my system is based on the big picture + technical analysis + others(I didn't mention) and can't be programmed.
Remember, you have many options:
1) You can have 50-80% in core with minimal trading and use only 20-50% for explore=more trading.
2) You can decide on 30-70% always invested, and only be in MM for the rest.
3) You can do hardly anything and use the same funds for many years.
4) In my case, I like to own mostly wide-range funds/indexes. But, since retirement in 2018, I'm mostly in bond OEFs which are more specialized because this is where I make most of my money and where you find big differences. I beat the SP500 in the last 5 years 2018-2022 by hardly losing money. I never lost more than 1% from any last top.
I like to own 2-3 funds because it's easier to trade. While many trade 2-5%, I trade 20-70%, it's a mindset.
Since retirement: while many investors are "brave" and can stand 20% loss, I prefer to stay out. Protecting my portfolio + lower risk/SD means very low losses + getting back to equal very quickly.
Flexibility means everything to me. I never owned a commodity fund, but I own one in 2022. PIMIX was a great fund, I owned it for 7 years in 2011-18. SPY(and LC growth) were the easiest funds to own during 2009-2021. In 2022 SCHD+HDV did a lot better. I just don't care about funds/managers. All I care is about performance at lower risk/SD and being out in very risky markets. Even if I'm late a bit it doesn't matter, I capture the bulk of the move.
How long does it take for my basic, generic system to run a fund screener and find the best risk-adjusted performance funds? Just several hours. This means, every 4-6 months, you spend 3-5 hours to find 5 funds and make the switch until the next time. I never paid the short-term fee of $49.95 at Fidelity and Schwab because the holding time is at least 3 months.
My current newer system started around 2013, how much time do I spend on my current investing/trading/switching my funds including looking at the big picture + T/A analysis?
Just minutes every week. The big picture hardly changes, either I'm mostly in, or out. I have links (using favorites in a browser)to all my T/A indicators. One screen for 3 line break, a second screen for the rest. Then I have one chart that includes several bond categories for 1-2 months of performance to see leading categories, in most cases, it's only HY Munis + Multi-sector funds. Since I owned 2-3 funds it's very quick. Most of these funds are correlated. It takes weeks for T/A to signal a trade(buy, sell, switch). The newer system has minimal trading fees. If I buy an Institutional share, in most cases the $49.95 is waved upfront, selling is always free. If the fund is an investor class, I don't pay when I buy, but if I sell before 2-3 months, I pay $49.95 and about $500-1000 per year. My portfolio is in the millions, so paying $1000 fees and making $200-300K annually is a minimal fee. In fact, the accounts that I trade more which are 80% of my portfolio, make about 1% more annually, which proves that my extra trading is worth it.
Trading: Just like anything else, practice makes you better. You can't learn to swim from a book, you actually have to do it, AKA swim. My trading is based on the markets and the funds I use. I may hold days (even hours sometimes) in very quick markets or months if my funds are doing fine.
Since 2013, I added the following, see the next 2 links
How to time the market based on the big picture (fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/21/time-market-based-big-picture)
Why and how I use technical analysis (fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/24/why-use-technical-analysis)
Lastly, did the above really work? It did very well, see the evidence (fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/3/portfolio-performance-over-years)
Basically, my system is based on the big picture + technical analysis + others(I didn't mention) and can't be programmed.
Remember, you have many options:
1) You can have 50-80% in core with minimal trading and use only 20-50% for explore=more trading.
2) You can decide on 30-70% always invested, and only be in MM for the rest.
3) You can do hardly anything and use the same funds for many years.
4) In my case, I like to own mostly wide-range funds/indexes. But, since retirement in 2018, I'm mostly in bond OEFs which are more specialized because this is where I make most of my money and where you find big differences. I beat the SP500 in the last 5 years 2018-2022 by hardly losing money. I never lost more than 1% from any last top.
I like to own 2-3 funds because it's easier to trade. While many trade 2-5%, I trade 20-70%, it's a mindset.
Since retirement: while many investors are "brave" and can stand 20% loss, I prefer to stay out. Protecting my portfolio + lower risk/SD means very low losses + getting back to equal very quickly.
Flexibility means everything to me. I never owned a commodity fund, but I own one in 2022. PIMIX was a great fund, I owned it for 7 years in 2011-18. SPY(and LC growth) were the easiest funds to own during 2009-2021. In 2022 SCHD+HDV did a lot better. I just don't care about funds/managers. All I care is about performance at lower risk/SD and being out in very risky markets. Even if I'm late a bit it doesn't matter, I capture the bulk of the move.
How long does it take for my basic, generic system to run a fund screener and find the best risk-adjusted performance funds? Just several hours. This means, every 4-6 months, you spend 3-5 hours to find 5 funds and make the switch until the next time. I never paid the short-term fee of $49.95 at Fidelity and Schwab because the holding time is at least 3 months.
My current newer system started around 2013, how much time do I spend on my current investing/trading/switching my funds including looking at the big picture + T/A analysis?
Just minutes every week. The big picture hardly changes, either I'm mostly in, or out. I have links (using favorites in a browser)to all my T/A indicators. One screen for 3 line break, a second screen for the rest. Then I have one chart that includes several bond categories for 1-2 months of performance to see leading categories, in most cases, it's only HY Munis + Multi-sector funds. Since I owned 2-3 funds it's very quick. Most of these funds are correlated. It takes weeks for T/A to signal a trade(buy, sell, switch). The newer system has minimal trading fees. If I buy an Institutional share, in most cases the $49.95 is waved upfront, selling is always free. If the fund is an investor class, I don't pay when I buy, but if I sell before 2-3 months, I pay $49.95 and about $500-1000 per year. My portfolio is in the millions, so paying $1000 fees and making $200-300K annually is a minimal fee. In fact, the accounts that I trade more which are 80% of my portfolio, make about 1% more annually, which proves that my extra trading is worth it.
Trading: Just like anything else, practice makes you better. You can't learn to swim from a book, you actually have to do it, AKA swim. My trading is based on the markets and the funds I use. I may hold days (even hours sometimes) in very quick markets or months if my funds are doing fine.