Post by Admin on Feb 7, 2023 11:29:08 GMT -5
First, you got to know how to time the market based on the big picture (fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/21/time-market-based-big-picture)
When the big picture says it's OK to invest, it means mostly in. Technical analysis(T/A) is just a supporting tool to make my life easier. It tells me when to trade with favorable entries/exits. It's not 100% reliable, nothing is, but it lets me capture the bulk of the uptrend and avoid most of the losses. Of course, nothing is a guarantee. If I made a "mistake" I switch or sell, it's part of my system. A good trader is always suspicious and careful, and I prefer to "lose" money by being out than actually really lose money.
I have a proprietary system but over the years I shared some of it.
1) I use short term + long term indicators.
2) I look at charts with several funds from several categories first to see which is a better category. Then I search for the best funds within 1-2 categories to buy and hold until the next time I trade. What do better funds mean to me? Funds with better performance but smoother uptrend.
Lower SD (=smoother) funds have higher chances to fall less than volatile funds which gives me more time to exit the fund with lower losses.
A fund can be more volatile in one period but much smoother in another. So, being out in MM when markets are very risky + being invested in "normal" markets let me use these funds. IOFIX lost 40+% in 03/2020, but made a lot more than most other bond funds, after that. HY Munis (ORNAX) made a lot more than VGIT(treasuries) + lower SD for 3 months since early 11/2022.
3) The idea isn't to trade every signal, but to trade less often by looking at LT indicators and trends.
4) Bond OEFs funds are better than ETFs because I can find special funds. For stocks, trading ETFs make more sense. I do pay sometimes $50 short term fees but they are negligible. All my bond Institutional shares fees of $50 to buy are waived, and selling is always free.
5) From my experience T/A works better for slower moving funds/indexes = lower SD
3-line-break: = one of my ST indicators See first image below. Let's look at ORNAX in 2022. The chart (stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ORNAX&p=D&st=2022-01-03&en=2023-02-01&id=p44202488279) shows the following: only 3 good buys(green bars) in May, July, and Nov of 2022. You can see 2 other times, but based on my LT indicator (that I didn't disclose), I didn't trade.
My big picture said to get out in early 2022. I made 2 trades in May, July for only several days using over 50% because the big picture was still high risk. I went in at 99+% in early Nov, and sold in Dec In just 3 round-trip trades + staying in MM most year, I made most of my portfolio 9.7% performance in 2022. Went back in early 2023, and sold early again in 02/2023.
Weekly MACD = LT indicator for CEFs only introduced by Dick the bond guy. See second image below. Let's look at PDI(CEF). See the chart (stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PDI&p=W&st=2022-01-03&en=2023-02-01&id=p68969323648) I usually don't own CEFs. Big picture says stay out until 11/2022 in MM. T/A shows the following: only 2 buys during 2022. First trade only days in 08/2022 because of big picture. Go all in on 11/2022.
When the big picture says it's OK to invest, it means mostly in. Technical analysis(T/A) is just a supporting tool to make my life easier. It tells me when to trade with favorable entries/exits. It's not 100% reliable, nothing is, but it lets me capture the bulk of the uptrend and avoid most of the losses. Of course, nothing is a guarantee. If I made a "mistake" I switch or sell, it's part of my system. A good trader is always suspicious and careful, and I prefer to "lose" money by being out than actually really lose money.
I have a proprietary system but over the years I shared some of it.
1) I use short term + long term indicators.
2) I look at charts with several funds from several categories first to see which is a better category. Then I search for the best funds within 1-2 categories to buy and hold until the next time I trade. What do better funds mean to me? Funds with better performance but smoother uptrend.
Lower SD (=smoother) funds have higher chances to fall less than volatile funds which gives me more time to exit the fund with lower losses.
A fund can be more volatile in one period but much smoother in another. So, being out in MM when markets are very risky + being invested in "normal" markets let me use these funds. IOFIX lost 40+% in 03/2020, but made a lot more than most other bond funds, after that. HY Munis (ORNAX) made a lot more than VGIT(treasuries) + lower SD for 3 months since early 11/2022.
3) The idea isn't to trade every signal, but to trade less often by looking at LT indicators and trends.
4) Bond OEFs funds are better than ETFs because I can find special funds. For stocks, trading ETFs make more sense. I do pay sometimes $50 short term fees but they are negligible. All my bond Institutional shares fees of $50 to buy are waived, and selling is always free.
5) From my experience T/A works better for slower moving funds/indexes = lower SD
3-line-break: = one of my ST indicators See first image below. Let's look at ORNAX in 2022. The chart (stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ORNAX&p=D&st=2022-01-03&en=2023-02-01&id=p44202488279) shows the following: only 3 good buys(green bars) in May, July, and Nov of 2022. You can see 2 other times, but based on my LT indicator (that I didn't disclose), I didn't trade.
My big picture said to get out in early 2022. I made 2 trades in May, July for only several days using over 50% because the big picture was still high risk. I went in at 99+% in early Nov, and sold in Dec In just 3 round-trip trades + staying in MM most year, I made most of my portfolio 9.7% performance in 2022. Went back in early 2023, and sold early again in 02/2023.
Weekly MACD = LT indicator for CEFs only introduced by Dick the bond guy. See second image below. Let's look at PDI(CEF). See the chart (stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PDI&p=W&st=2022-01-03&en=2023-02-01&id=p68969323648) I usually don't own CEFs. Big picture says stay out until 11/2022 in MM. T/A shows the following: only 2 buys during 2022. First trade only days in 08/2022 because of big picture. Go all in on 11/2022.