Post by Admin on Jul 13, 2024 15:16:28 GMT -5
I have been practicing momentum since 2000 with great success, but I lost 25% in 2008 investing in 90%+ stocks. Relatively, it was good because the SP500 lost 37% and international over 40%. With a big portfolio, I said no more. I want to make money every year with a steady ride for decades. Interesting fact: since I started investing in 1995 until today, 2008 was the only year I lost money. Momentum and switching funds did not work in 2008. I had to find a solution.
After looking for years for ways to avoid losses, I found it in 2013. At that point, I had enough money, and as they say, "when you have enough, don't play the game anymore," but not for me.
PIMIX was the fund that opened my eyes. I bought it in 2010, and by 2013, after 3 years, PIMIX beat SPY with a much lower SD. See this chart (schrts.co/aSbrBUqs).
PIMIX has been a unique fund that took advantage of the 2008 cheap MBS and for years to come, had amazing performance and low volatility. The PIMCO managers also used derivatives and some leverage. It was also the time I planned my retirement and changed my asset allocation to more bonds. Within several years and close to retirement, I had over 50% in PIMIX.
Bingo, my system developed and evolved to avoid all meltdowns, especially the fast ones that mechanical systems miss. It was based on:
1) The big picture. See (fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/21/time-market-based-big-picture)
2) I found out that very slow bond funds work a lot better with momentum and avoiding losses. Bond funds often have 1-2 weeks of selling opportunity before they go down.
3) Finding special bond funds. Most are in categories such as Multisector, HY Munis, non traditional. I usually don't own HY or emerging market bond funds. Finding funds with a small AUM(asset under management) is another plus because the best opportunities are far and few.
Remember, many of these funds can have a very smooth uptrend for months, but can lose a lot too. You have to know what you own
4) Since I owned PIMIX for years at a high %, I got used to the idea that I only have 2-3 ideas every time.
Examples:
1) PIMIX was great from 2010 to 2018. In 01/2018 I replaced it with IOFIX, that worked until 01/2020, see the chart (schrts.co/mqjFnEII)
2) In early 2020, when COVID hit the world, the big picture signaled to sell everything, which I did in late 02/2020. The chart below shows the 2 funds I own: IOFIX+NHMAX and SPY. The chart shows that SPY fell already over 10% in the last week of 02/2020 while my funds were going up. Even in the first week of March, both of my funds did OK while the SPY was losing more money. This is a chart of just several weeks (schrts.co/xEQKVVNK). I started buying at the end of March and was fully invested 2 weeks later. This was a perfect incident showing how my system works while mechanical systems can't react that fast, and if they do, these systems will give you dozens of trade signals while I trade only based on markets and sometimes hold for months.
3) Today is 7/13/2024, suppose you are looking for bond funds to invest. The idea is to look for smooth uptrends (usually no more than 0.5% losses lately) and rely on momentum. Any time my funds lose more than 0.5%, I'm out. This is why I have never lost more than 1% since 2018. The attachment below show several fund. Pay attention to how PIMIX and DODIX (good high-rated bond fund) volatility is much higher than the following funds I would own: RSIVX,NVHAX,SEMMX. So, if I made 5+% year-to-date there is a good chance I will make 8-11% by year end...and THAT IS ALL I WANT TO DO.
How do you find these funds? that's the secret, I gave you already so many tips.
BTW, over the years, many have doubted my system. I'm very happy that most think it's bogus and impossible while I posted my performance in this (link). Imagine thousands of investors trading millions of dollars in/out of bond funds.
My total system is at fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/25/putting-all
After looking for years for ways to avoid losses, I found it in 2013. At that point, I had enough money, and as they say, "when you have enough, don't play the game anymore," but not for me.
PIMIX was the fund that opened my eyes. I bought it in 2010, and by 2013, after 3 years, PIMIX beat SPY with a much lower SD. See this chart (schrts.co/aSbrBUqs).
PIMIX has been a unique fund that took advantage of the 2008 cheap MBS and for years to come, had amazing performance and low volatility. The PIMCO managers also used derivatives and some leverage. It was also the time I planned my retirement and changed my asset allocation to more bonds. Within several years and close to retirement, I had over 50% in PIMIX.
Bingo, my system developed and evolved to avoid all meltdowns, especially the fast ones that mechanical systems miss. It was based on:
1) The big picture. See (fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/21/time-market-based-big-picture)
2) I found out that very slow bond funds work a lot better with momentum and avoiding losses. Bond funds often have 1-2 weeks of selling opportunity before they go down.
3) Finding special bond funds. Most are in categories such as Multisector, HY Munis, non traditional. I usually don't own HY or emerging market bond funds. Finding funds with a small AUM(asset under management) is another plus because the best opportunities are far and few.
Remember, many of these funds can have a very smooth uptrend for months, but can lose a lot too. You have to know what you own
4) Since I owned PIMIX for years at a high %, I got used to the idea that I only have 2-3 ideas every time.
Examples:
1) PIMIX was great from 2010 to 2018. In 01/2018 I replaced it with IOFIX, that worked until 01/2020, see the chart (schrts.co/mqjFnEII)
2) In early 2020, when COVID hit the world, the big picture signaled to sell everything, which I did in late 02/2020. The chart below shows the 2 funds I own: IOFIX+NHMAX and SPY. The chart shows that SPY fell already over 10% in the last week of 02/2020 while my funds were going up. Even in the first week of March, both of my funds did OK while the SPY was losing more money. This is a chart of just several weeks (schrts.co/xEQKVVNK). I started buying at the end of March and was fully invested 2 weeks later. This was a perfect incident showing how my system works while mechanical systems can't react that fast, and if they do, these systems will give you dozens of trade signals while I trade only based on markets and sometimes hold for months.
3) Today is 7/13/2024, suppose you are looking for bond funds to invest. The idea is to look for smooth uptrends (usually no more than 0.5% losses lately) and rely on momentum. Any time my funds lose more than 0.5%, I'm out. This is why I have never lost more than 1% since 2018. The attachment below show several fund. Pay attention to how PIMIX and DODIX (good high-rated bond fund) volatility is much higher than the following funds I would own: RSIVX,NVHAX,SEMMX. So, if I made 5+% year-to-date there is a good chance I will make 8-11% by year end...and THAT IS ALL I WANT TO DO.
How do you find these funds? that's the secret, I gave you already so many tips.
BTW, over the years, many have doubted my system. I'm very happy that most think it's bogus and impossible while I posted my performance in this (link). Imagine thousands of investors trading millions of dollars in/out of bond funds.
My total system is at fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/25/putting-all
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