Real time trades at critical points + my system
Dec 20, 2023 14:02:08 GMT -5
bridgebuilder likes this
Post by Admin on Dec 20, 2023 14:02:08 GMT -5
It's not a secret; I'm a bond OEFs trader. I explained how I time the market based on the big picture + technicals (fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/25/putting-all), but sometimes I also post about stocks.
My system is based on momentum + how to avoid big meltdowns. I practiced the first until I made a substantial amount of money, I added the second half as a necessary way to preserve my money.
It took me years to develop and tweak it, and I still do because markets change all the time and get faster. I tested dozens of mechanical systems, but none worked, so I had to develop it. The implementation had to be easy too, and it is.
Specific goals: I already have several million, my goals since retirement in 2018 are:
1) Beat 50/50(stocks/bonds) with a lower SD and a higher Sharpe ratio.
2) lose no more than 3% from any last top by missing most of the meltdown, but also capturing most of the upside.
3) Use mostly bonds OEF.
Since retirement in 2018, for 2018-2023(6 years) I did much better than my goals. I beat the SP500, I never lost more than 1%, and my portfolio SD is 2.5.
Below are several examples
1) I sold on 2/29/2020 just days before the meltdown because of Covid=unique situation(community.morningstar.com/s/question/0D53o00005E8YIDCA3/sold-most-of-my-portfolio-to-cash).
I made a similar post at (www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55299/bond-mutual-funds-analysis-act-2/p2)
2) I also sold very early in 2022 before a major meltdown in stocks+bonds because of high inflation, high prices (gas, oil, food, housing, vehicles), terrible supply chain issues around the world, war in Europe. The Fed screams it will raise rates by several % in the coming months. Unique? Of course, it was. I sold early in 2022, and explained it at (big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/1262/make-sense).
3) In early 11/2023, I posted why you should go in as I did again, see (big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/1959/bond-future-musings?page=8).
4) I seldom post my trades in real-time but I did in 11/2023
In 11/1/2023 (big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/1959?page=8).
"Did you catch the buy T/A buy signal for several funds, and it wasn't the first day?"
On the same date 11/1/2023 I posted about stocks (big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/43353)
"Momo has looked good in the last several days. All = a buy before closing.
You can just play it simple: no diversification, no predictions, no narrow range funds, looks like tilting LC growth is here to stay which = SPY/VOO or you can gamble and use some QQQ."
On 11/4/2023 (big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/43481)
"I changed 80% of my portfolio last week which I held for several months.
When will I sell? no idea, the chart and uptrend will tell me what to do."
The above trades and others are how I achieved excellent risk/reward.
A reminder: my system is based on big picture + technical analysis + others and can't be programmed.
==========
The following is one of my favorite technical indicators called 3-line-break which supported items 2,3,4 above(schrts.co/kGyHYgyB). I have used it to trade bond OEFs over several years, especially HY Munis in 2022-2023, ORNAX is one of the funds I used, green=buy, red=sell. Also, see the price below the chart:
What do you see in the chart? This is what I did, sold in January of 2022, traded 3 times in 2022, and made 9.7%.
Is it only based on this one indicator? no, it's not. It's more than that, but you can see how this one indicator works pretty well...it doesn't work well with stocks, too many whipsaws.
Below is my biggest account performance from 2018 (retirement) to the end of 2023, which is 6 years. It is a direct copy using a snipping tool. The blue line is my account. My second biggest account did even more. The other accounts are similar too.
My system is based on momentum + how to avoid big meltdowns. I practiced the first until I made a substantial amount of money, I added the second half as a necessary way to preserve my money.
It took me years to develop and tweak it, and I still do because markets change all the time and get faster. I tested dozens of mechanical systems, but none worked, so I had to develop it. The implementation had to be easy too, and it is.
Specific goals: I already have several million, my goals since retirement in 2018 are:
1) Beat 50/50(stocks/bonds) with a lower SD and a higher Sharpe ratio.
2) lose no more than 3% from any last top by missing most of the meltdown, but also capturing most of the upside.
3) Use mostly bonds OEF.
Since retirement in 2018, for 2018-2023(6 years) I did much better than my goals. I beat the SP500, I never lost more than 1%, and my portfolio SD is 2.5.
Below are several examples
1) I sold on 2/29/2020 just days before the meltdown because of Covid=unique situation(community.morningstar.com/s/question/0D53o00005E8YIDCA3/sold-most-of-my-portfolio-to-cash).
I made a similar post at (www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55299/bond-mutual-funds-analysis-act-2/p2)
2) I also sold very early in 2022 before a major meltdown in stocks+bonds because of high inflation, high prices (gas, oil, food, housing, vehicles), terrible supply chain issues around the world, war in Europe. The Fed screams it will raise rates by several % in the coming months. Unique? Of course, it was. I sold early in 2022, and explained it at (big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/1262/make-sense).
3) In early 11/2023, I posted why you should go in as I did again, see (big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/1959/bond-future-musings?page=8).
4) I seldom post my trades in real-time but I did in 11/2023
In 11/1/2023 (big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/1959?page=8).
"Did you catch the buy T/A buy signal for several funds, and it wasn't the first day?"
On the same date 11/1/2023 I posted about stocks (big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/43353)
"Momo has looked good in the last several days. All = a buy before closing.
You can just play it simple: no diversification, no predictions, no narrow range funds, looks like tilting LC growth is here to stay which = SPY/VOO or you can gamble and use some QQQ."
On 11/4/2023 (big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/43481)
"I changed 80% of my portfolio last week which I held for several months.
When will I sell? no idea, the chart and uptrend will tell me what to do."
The above trades and others are how I achieved excellent risk/reward.
A reminder: my system is based on big picture + technical analysis + others and can't be programmed.
==========
The following is one of my favorite technical indicators called 3-line-break which supported items 2,3,4 above(schrts.co/kGyHYgyB). I have used it to trade bond OEFs over several years, especially HY Munis in 2022-2023, ORNAX is one of the funds I used, green=buy, red=sell. Also, see the price below the chart:
What do you see in the chart? This is what I did, sold in January of 2022, traded 3 times in 2022, and made 9.7%.
Is it only based on this one indicator? no, it's not. It's more than that, but you can see how this one indicator works pretty well...it doesn't work well with stocks, too many whipsaws.
Below is my biggest account performance from 2018 (retirement) to the end of 2023, which is 6 years. It is a direct copy using a snipping tool. The blue line is my account. My second biggest account did even more. The other accounts are similar too.