Post by Admin on Aug 30, 2021 17:39:41 GMT -5
Can PE, PE10(CAPE), the economy, M2, inverted yield, high valuation, interest rates, GDP, inflation, high demand, demographic, Bullish sentiments, EARNINGS, the "experts"...predict STOCKS PERFORMANCE in the next 1-4-8 weeks(many times longer than that)?
No. There is not a high correlation between the above to what stocks will do next.
You name it, and I can prove that any of the above can't tell you what's next. One of the main reasons is the interference of the Fed Reserve.
Many experts claim that earnings are the best way to predict performance, wrong again. See the table below. In 2018 earning grew up by about 18% and the SP500 was down -4.4%. In 2019 earnings were up by about 3% and the SP500 was up 31.5%.
But, the 24/7 media keep publishing articles (many recyclable) to make you believe someone can predict it.
Unfortunately, predictions are far from being accurate. Remember, if you sell and stocks continue going up 10% and then down 5% and then continue up, you saved the 5% decline but you made less money. Timing is far from being easy.
Others claim that Valuation hold water. There are different metrics and many stocks in different categories and why valuation are far from accurate.
Valuation can't tell you when to buy,sell,hold at what price.
The market can be irrational for years.
Did the market correct in 1987, 2008, 2020 because of valuation? Easy answer, NO.
As long as there are more buyers than sellers, a stock can go up, regardless of any valuation or other criteria, it happens all the times.
If valuation had a specific reliable easy known formula, every investor would be great, but we know the SP500 beat most investors and "experts" for long periods. Commissions are gone (or very cheap) and still most trail.
Many claim that high rates are not good for stocks, especially high-tech The 10 year treasury rate in the 90" was much higher, around 6-7%. SP500 + high tech did great, especially during 1995-2000.
I hardly ever pay attention to economists or experts that discuss the economy, after all, they are all discussing generic ideas they learned at university because they can't predict anything and can't admit it.
Instead, I learned how to time markets, and it worked very well for me, avoiding most of the losses for about 10 years, see (fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/45/real-time-trades-critical-points).
No. There is not a high correlation between the above to what stocks will do next.
You name it, and I can prove that any of the above can't tell you what's next. One of the main reasons is the interference of the Fed Reserve.
Many experts claim that earnings are the best way to predict performance, wrong again. See the table below. In 2018 earning grew up by about 18% and the SP500 was down -4.4%. In 2019 earnings were up by about 3% and the SP500 was up 31.5%.
But, the 24/7 media keep publishing articles (many recyclable) to make you believe someone can predict it.
Unfortunately, predictions are far from being accurate. Remember, if you sell and stocks continue going up 10% and then down 5% and then continue up, you saved the 5% decline but you made less money. Timing is far from being easy.
Others claim that Valuation hold water. There are different metrics and many stocks in different categories and why valuation are far from accurate.
Valuation can't tell you when to buy,sell,hold at what price.
The market can be irrational for years.
Did the market correct in 1987, 2008, 2020 because of valuation? Easy answer, NO.
As long as there are more buyers than sellers, a stock can go up, regardless of any valuation or other criteria, it happens all the times.
If valuation had a specific reliable easy known formula, every investor would be great, but we know the SP500 beat most investors and "experts" for long periods. Commissions are gone (or very cheap) and still most trail.
Many claim that high rates are not good for stocks, especially high-tech The 10 year treasury rate in the 90" was much higher, around 6-7%. SP500 + high tech did great, especially during 1995-2000.
I hardly ever pay attention to economists or experts that discuss the economy, after all, they are all discussing generic ideas they learned at university because they can't predict anything and can't admit it.
Instead, I learned how to time markets, and it worked very well for me, avoiding most of the losses for about 10 years, see (fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/45/real-time-trades-critical-points).
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