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Post by Admin on Mar 22, 2024 1:07:24 GMT -5
In March 2022, there was a long thread discussing WHY YOU SHOULD BUY VGSH, SEE big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/1328/time-treasury-bond-funds-cash. I said " Easy choice = NO. The trend is down, down and more down." Others argued it would be a good choice. You can read the whole thread, after 2 years, the results are in VGSH vs MM=VMFXX shows how VMFXX made almost 3 times more with zero volatility. schrts.co/NePhKrknI can't help anyone who can't see why volatility if using correctly has a meaningful force improving someone portfolio risk-adjusted performance. I mostly stopped arguing this point. I also tried teaching that the charts and uptrends are stronger than any opinion, they tell you in real time what markets are actually are doing. |
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Post by Admin on Mar 22, 2024 5:59:51 GMT -5
Another I told you so for 2024. big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/2926/bill-maturing-11-invest-where?page=1With rates appearing to have peaked, I have three T-bills maturing Several posters mentioned VWEAX, PIMIX, FTBFX, PYLD, This is what I posted, see big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/2926/bill-maturing-11-invest-where?page=3Nothing changed since early 2023. 1) I have been posting about RPHIX=best "sub" cash + CBLDX and RSIIX/RSIVX for months since 2022. These are not a "trade" it's already over a year. ========== What happened so far in 2024? The chart below already proves my point. Why use Multi=PIMIX or high-rated bonds with a lot more volatility and be close or not at year end. schrts.co/RzHWZRkaSometimes it is that easy. YTD RSIIX is already at 2.7% per M* and a good possibility to make over 10%. Again, charts, and uptrends in real time and not listening to opinions have helped me for years. But also finding great funds/managers who can do well regardless are a huge help. Remember, Vanguard, Pimco and simple indexes are not the only game in town |
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Post by graust on Mar 29, 2024 9:56:21 GMT -5
FD, great points you are making…..I have a mutual fund only 403b at Fidelity, with a brokerage option (but still can only invest in OEFs), and I have an equal weighted bond sleeve of RSIVX, OSTIX, HOSAX, and PRCFX (I know the latter is an allocation fund, but I’m in my 40’s so I need the growth still; also have 20% of it in PRWCX).
OSTIX is a reasonable alternative to RSIVX….its volatility is nearly double that of RSIVX, however. I hold that in my father’s account also, but RSIVX is the largest. However, he is in the RMD phase and in order to have more flexibility, I have looked to ETFs. JAAA is the ETF I have found that is closest to RSIVX/CBLDX in performance and volatility. JBBB is much more volatile but has a bit better performance and a better yield. He holds both of these CLO ETFs, along with individual preferreds as my income/“bond” sleeve (along with RSIVX, RPHIX, OSTIX). I bought PYLD a couple of months ago to try to take advantage of lower interest rates, but it’s performance stinks, for the reasons you have shown, so I will sell it next week and probably move it to JAAA/JBBB.
Thanks for your sharing of information; you don’t come right out and say everything, but you are a valuable resource for a lot of people. Thanks for all you do
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Post by junkster on Mar 29, 2024 14:32:24 GMT -5
Congrats graust. First mention I have seen anywhere of HOSAX, albeit hate to see it, Many larger bond traders ( as in smaller hedge funds) have been using HOSIX as a substitute for cash. Which probably explains its sometimes large gyrations in AUM. So far they haven’t cracked down on the in and out traders there. I hold under 10% there but have been higher. Too many other opportunities in Bondland although it is compelling as a stand alone and its double digit annual returns.
Edit: I should add I am talking about the here and now. You can go back to early 23 or the day HOSIX dropped something like 0.60 in one day and dispute this being a substitute for cash. And I couldn’t argue with that. But more recently with their changed portfolio it has been remarkably stable while throwing off a double digit yield. Even though I mentioned I had been higher there, I personally would feel uncomfortable going all in or ultra heavy on a fund like HOSIX.
Speaking of a remarkably steady fund I mentioned RCRIX last May or so on MFO. But also discussed their propensity to ban in and out traders. They may have relaxed that more recently and I hold it at Schwab where I moved money this year. It however wouldn’t be considered a cash substitute as it is not a daily accumulation bond fund. This is a fund that needs to be shouted from the rooftops because its AUM has declined from a high of some 150 million in years past to 30 million. I fear if it continues to bleed assets it could be liquidated.
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Post by linter on Mar 30, 2024 7:51:06 GMT -5
graust: as an alternative to JBBB and/or JAAA, you might also look at CLOZ, which is a CLO ETF as well. it seems to do better than JAAA while being about equal to JBBB, with a bit less volatility than JBBB.
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Post by graust on Mar 30, 2024 13:55:32 GMT -5
Thanks linter, I have looked at several CLO ETFs, but definitely missed CLOZ. It’s sometimes difficult to figure out their “yield” quickly. CLOZ looks like it’s about 9-ish% plus it’s a bit smoother ride than JBBB, as you said. Thanks! |
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Post by linter on Apr 15, 2024 18:08:59 GMT -5
RSIVX went on a three-line break sell signal today. fyi. meanwhile, my others continue to climb -- well, 2 out of three of them, at least. JAAA is down a bit but still hanging in. right now, i'm glad I moved most of my JAAA over to CLOZ.
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Post by Admin on Apr 16, 2024 3:37:05 GMT -5
RSIVX is down just over 0.2%, not enough to sell.
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