Post by Admin on Nov 5, 2021 22:53:47 GMT -5
This is one of my favorite subjects. You read and hear these experts and think they really can predict the future, but they are not. They were just lucky their opinions matter at one time, but they were so wrong in other predictions.
Dr gloom Nouriel Roubini is a perma bear who missed the great stock performance of 1995-2000. He predicted accurately the 2008-9 debacle. He missed all the performance of 2010-2021.
In 2013 prediction(link) "Roubini said the equity market could face a sharp correction next year, with little the Federal Reserve can do to stop it.
FD: The SP500 made 32.3% in 2013
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Grantham + GMO is a special case for someone who was right prior to 2009, but is wrong since 2010.
2010 (link)
"Over the next seven years, GMO forecasts large-cap U.S. stocks to deliver a real return (after inflation) of 1.3% annually, while small-caps provide a 0.5% return."
"International stocks also fare reasonably well in GMO's model, up about 4.7%, while emerging markets come in with a 3.9% annualized gain."
FD: reality(link): SPY made 14.4%...IWM 11.9%...EEM 3%. One of the worse misses in the history of predictions.
10/2012 (www.forbes.com/sites/schifrin/2012/10/24/jeremy-grantham-warns-2013-will-be-a-dangerous-year-for-stocks/?sh=752ba4cc7010) Jeremy Grantham Warns 2013 Will Be A Dangerous Year For Stocks:
FD: The SP500 made over 32%
2013 (link) The S&P 500 is 75% Overvalued: GMO.....In a quarterly letter published on Monday, Ben Inker, co-head of global asset allocation at GMO said the expected rate of return on the stock market index is minus 1.3 percent per year, adjusted for inflation, for the next seven years.
2015 (link) GMO's Jeremy Grantham has a relatively gloomy outlook for the markets and economy.
FD: wrong again and again and again. Why anybody asks his opinion?
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Arnott the manager of PAUIX was pretty good until 2009 claiming he has the tools, research and knowledge to predict future performance + best categories. PAUIX made only 4.5% in the last 12 years while the SP500 made 15+%. See (link).
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Abby Joseph Cohen was a top dog at Goldman Sachs for years (link)
She is famous for predicting the bull market of the 1990s early in the decade, and was named Institutional Investor's top strategist in 1998 and 1999.[2] However, she developed a reputation as a so-called "perma-bull", receiving criticism for continued bullish predictions after March 2000 as the stock market entered a dramatic decline.[7]
Her reputation was further damaged when she failed to foresee the great Bear Market of 2008. In December 2007, she predicted the S&P 500 index would rally to 1,675 in 2008, the most optimistic of 14 Wall Street forecasters. The S&P 500 traded as low as 741 by November 2008, 56% below her prediction. On March 8, 2008, Goldman Sachs announced that Cohen was being replaced by David Kostin as the bank's chief forecaster for the U.S. stock market.[8]
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John Bogle, Vanguard founder, also used mean reversion for forecasts, but was proven wrong. In this 04/2013 (article)..."Look at it this way. If the dividend yield is 2 percent lower than the long-term return of 9 percent, we’ll drop to 7. It’s a deadweight loss, that dividend. So 7 percent is a pretty good return in this day and age, because bonds are yielding maybe 2, maybe 3 percent depending on your portfolio. So stocks are really a pretty good investment for the next 10 years.
Reality: Since 2013, the SP500 made 16+% annually.
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Vanguard predictions from 10 years ago 01/2012(link)...."Stock market returns. Centered in the 6%−9% return range"
Reality: The SP500 made over 16%
Dr gloom Nouriel Roubini is a perma bear who missed the great stock performance of 1995-2000. He predicted accurately the 2008-9 debacle. He missed all the performance of 2010-2021.
In 2013 prediction(link) "Roubini said the equity market could face a sharp correction next year, with little the Federal Reserve can do to stop it.
FD: The SP500 made 32.3% in 2013
==================
Grantham + GMO is a special case for someone who was right prior to 2009, but is wrong since 2010.
2010 (link)
"Over the next seven years, GMO forecasts large-cap U.S. stocks to deliver a real return (after inflation) of 1.3% annually, while small-caps provide a 0.5% return."
"International stocks also fare reasonably well in GMO's model, up about 4.7%, while emerging markets come in with a 3.9% annualized gain."
FD: reality(link): SPY made 14.4%...IWM 11.9%...EEM 3%. One of the worse misses in the history of predictions.
10/2012 (www.forbes.com/sites/schifrin/2012/10/24/jeremy-grantham-warns-2013-will-be-a-dangerous-year-for-stocks/?sh=752ba4cc7010) Jeremy Grantham Warns 2013 Will Be A Dangerous Year For Stocks:
FD: The SP500 made over 32%
2013 (link) The S&P 500 is 75% Overvalued: GMO.....In a quarterly letter published on Monday, Ben Inker, co-head of global asset allocation at GMO said the expected rate of return on the stock market index is minus 1.3 percent per year, adjusted for inflation, for the next seven years.
2015 (link) GMO's Jeremy Grantham has a relatively gloomy outlook for the markets and economy.
FD: wrong again and again and again. Why anybody asks his opinion?
==================
Arnott the manager of PAUIX was pretty good until 2009 claiming he has the tools, research and knowledge to predict future performance + best categories. PAUIX made only 4.5% in the last 12 years while the SP500 made 15+%. See (link).
==================
Abby Joseph Cohen was a top dog at Goldman Sachs for years (link)
She is famous for predicting the bull market of the 1990s early in the decade, and was named Institutional Investor's top strategist in 1998 and 1999.[2] However, she developed a reputation as a so-called "perma-bull", receiving criticism for continued bullish predictions after March 2000 as the stock market entered a dramatic decline.[7]
Her reputation was further damaged when she failed to foresee the great Bear Market of 2008. In December 2007, she predicted the S&P 500 index would rally to 1,675 in 2008, the most optimistic of 14 Wall Street forecasters. The S&P 500 traded as low as 741 by November 2008, 56% below her prediction. On March 8, 2008, Goldman Sachs announced that Cohen was being replaced by David Kostin as the bank's chief forecaster for the U.S. stock market.[8]
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John Bogle, Vanguard founder, also used mean reversion for forecasts, but was proven wrong. In this 04/2013 (article)..."Look at it this way. If the dividend yield is 2 percent lower than the long-term return of 9 percent, we’ll drop to 7. It’s a deadweight loss, that dividend. So 7 percent is a pretty good return in this day and age, because bonds are yielding maybe 2, maybe 3 percent depending on your portfolio. So stocks are really a pretty good investment for the next 10 years.
Reality: Since 2013, the SP500 made 16+% annually.
==================
Vanguard predictions from 10 years ago 01/2012(link)...."Stock market returns. Centered in the 6%−9% return range"
Reality: The SP500 made over 16%